JAKARTA. Indonesia’s trade balance surplus in 2026 is at risk of being further pressured. This is in line with the beginning of weakening export performance at the end of 2025.
Pressure on exports is seen from the decline in Indonesia’s export performance in November 2025. The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) noted that Indonesia’s export value in November 2025 reached US$ 22.52 billion, down 6.60% annually.
This decline was mainly triggered by a sharp contraction in the mining sector’s exports, which reached 22.28% annually, with a value of only US$ 2.99 billion. Coal exports to China were recorded to have dropped 27.18% annually, and to India also dropped 24.70% annually.
On the other hand, the import value in November actually increased by 0.46% annually to US$ 19.86 billion. This increase was supported by oil and gas imports, which reached US$ 2.86 billion, or grew 11.19% annually.
In detail, capital goods imports jumped 17.27% annually in that period. The surge in capital goods imports was mainly supported by imports of electrical equipment and machinery. Meanwhile, raw material imports still experienced a contraction of 3.56% annually, even though new manufacturing orders began to strengthen since October 2025.
Despite weaker exports and increased imports, Indonesia was still able to maintain its trade balance surplus. In November, Indonesia’s trade balance surplus was recorded at US$ 2.66 billion, an increase compared to US$ 2.39 billion in October 2025 and US$ 2.24 billion in December 2024.
Cumulatively, Indonesia’s trade surplus in the January-November 2025 period reached US$ 38.54 billion, growing 31.81% from the previous year. “The surplus throughout January to November 2025 was supported by a non-oil and gas commodity surplus of US$ 56.15 billion,” said BPS Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics Pudji Ismartini, on Monday (5/1).
However, this positive performance was still shadowed by a deficit in the oil and gas sector. BPS noted that the oil and gas trade balance along the January-November 2025 period experienced a deficit of US$ 17.61 billion.
Bank Danamon Economist Hosianna Evalita Situmorang assessed that pressure on the trade balance surplus going forward mainly comes from the risk of decreasing exports, due to both external factors and domestic policies. One factor that has the potential to burden exports is the implementation of export duties on gold and coal.
“In the future, the implementation of export duties on gold and coal has the potential to pressure export performance in 2026. This pressure can be exacerbated by the decline in palm oil export volume due to floods in Sumatra,” said Hosianna, yesterday.
Nurtiandriyani Simamora.